Precious Metals: Silver gains on global stimulus hopes
Precious metals prolonged their rally on Tuesday on hopes that central banks across the globe will provide more stimulus measures to boost economic expansion. The Word Bank lowered its global growth estimate from 3% to 2.4% for 2013, citing slower-than-expected recovery of the developed nations. However, gains were capped as upbeat US retail sales data sent the greenback higher.
Gold climbed on global easing expectations. The yellow metal rallied for the second-consecutive day after Ben Bernanke said that easy monetary policy is likely to stay in place. Moreover, strong physical demand from China ahead of Lunar New Year holiday added to gains of the precious metal.
Silver added more than one percent on hopes for stimulus measures by the central banks worldwide. Additionally, signs of stronger investment interest in the grey metal also spurred the rally. The latest data indicated that ETP silver holdings surged 4.8 tonnes to a record high of 19,065 metric tonnes.
Platinum and Palladium continued to gain inspiration from strong industrial demand and a deficit on the physical markets. Platinum?s deficit may attain 575,000 tonnes this year, the largest deficit since 1990, reported TD Securities.
Industrial Metals: Copper dips on slowing China?s demand
Industrial metals were mixed on Tuesday amid broadly stronger US Dollar and weak reading of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Lingering concerns over the US debt ceiling debate also weighed on the market sentiment. At the same time, speculation that more pessimistic outlook on the global growth will stimulate easing measures by the world largest economies provided support for base metals.
Aluminum was steady, balancing between mixed US data and hopes for easing measures across the globe. Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed manufacturing activity in the New York region deteriorated in January. Bloated LME inventories also sent the light meal lower.
Copper eased on signs of weak China?s demand. China?s cooper imports shed 6.6% on a monthly basis in December. Meanwhile, LME stocks advanced by 10,255, or 3.19% last week, pushing the red metal lower.
Nickel was the only gainer despite persistent pressure from oversupply on the physical markets and rising LME inventories.
Zinc edged lower as LME stockpiles continued to hover near a 17-year high of 1,235,975 tonnes.
Energy: Brent oil slumps ahead of EIA weekly supply report
Energy futures apart from natural gas were bearish on Tuesday amid mixed US data and concerns over the US budgetary dispute. Broadly stronger US Dollar after better-than-expected US retail sales reading sent energy prices lower. Moreover, global growth concerns after the World Bank cut its global expansion estimate from 3% to 2.4% for this year weighted on the commodity group.
Crude and Brent oil dropped ahead of the weekly EIA report due on Wednesday. Analysts say crude oil inventories may have increased by 2 million barrels last week compared to a 1.3-million-barrel jump in the preceding week. Uncertainty over the US debt ceiling battles also put heavy pressure on oil futures.
Natural gas extended gains, approaching a two-week high after larger-than-expected withdrawal last week. However, natural gas is likely to lose momentum as updated weather forecasts showed warmer-than-normal temperatures in the key parts of the US in the next six-to-ten days.
Heating oil plunged, tracking losses of crude and Brent oil. Warmer weather forecasts in the US and firm greenback pushed heating oil futures lower. Limiting the price decline, US inventories stood below a five-year average level last week.
Agriculture: Corn surges on South American weather concerns
Farm commodities were mixed on Tuesday, with grains extending previous gains and softs prolonging their decline. Grains continued to draw strength from recent cuts of US inventories by the USDA. At the same time, ample global supplies put notable pressure on softs.
Wheat led gains on concerns over dry weather in the US Great Plains and western Midwest. Moreover, demand for US wheat may strengthen as a recent drop in prices may attract foreign buyers and livestock producers.
Corn finished Tuesday?s session in the green territory as dry weather in South America increases crop stress and may boost demand for US supplies. Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil are expected to witness dry weather in the next ten days, according to T-Storm Weather.
Sugar dropped amid speculation that index funds? rebalancing comes to an end. Moreover, excessive global supplies added to losses of the sweetener.
Coffee closed lower, being pressurized by expected increase in producer selling as there are still large amounts of Arabica coffee available.
EXPLANATIONS
Commodities
Gold - spot 995 fine gold
Silver - spot 999 fine silver
Platinum - spot platinum with minimum purity 99.95%
Palladium - spot palladium with minimum purity 99.95%
Aluminium - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange
Copper - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange
Zinc - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange
Nickel - three-month forward contract on the London Metal Exchange
Crude oil - light, sweet crude oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange
Brent oil - Brent oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange
Natural Gas - natural gas active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange
Heating oil - heating oil active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange
Sugar - white sugar active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade
Wheat - wheat active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade
Coffee - benchmark Arabica coffee active contract on the NYB-ICE Futures Exchange
Corn - corn active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade
Indices
Dow Jones-UBS Precious Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of gold and silver; the index reflects return on underlying commodity futures price movement
Dow Jones-UBS Industry Metals Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions
Dow Jones-UBS Energy Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions
Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Subindex Total Return - commodity group subindex composed of futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and wheat; the index reflects return on fully collateralized futures positions
Chart
SMA (20) - Simple Moving Average of 20 periods
SMA (60) - Simple Moving Average of 60 periods
Correlation - a statistical measure of the linear relationship of two random variables. It is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of two variables
Indicators
Daily Ranked Price Moves - daily price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes
Monthly Ranked Price Moves - monthly price changes in an ascending order for positive changes and in a descending order for negative or mixed changes
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/daily-commodity-overview/2013-01-16.html
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